How the Pass Probability Calculator works

A Monte Carlo simulation answers an uncertain question by running it thousands of times with randomness and counting the outcomes. Here, the uncertain question is “will this trading profile pass this evaluation?” Instead of guessing once, the calculator draws 5,000 possible evaluation attempts from your own trading statistics and measures how often each one ends in a pass. The result is a probability, not a verdict: a trader who passes 62% of the simulated runs has meaningfully better odds than one who passes 20%, even though neither is guaranteed a specific outcome.

1. 1

   Enter your trading stats

   Give the calculator your win rate, average win, average loss, and trades per day. Largest win and largest loss are optional and sharpen the model.

2. 2

   Pick a firm and account size

   Choosing a plan loads that firm's real evaluation rules — profit target, drawdown, daily-loss limit, and minimum trading days.

3. 3

   We build your trade distribution

   Your stats become a probability distribution of per-trade profit and loss that each simulated trade is drawn from.

4. 4

   We simulate 5,000 full evaluations

   Each run plays out day by day and trade by trade, up to a 120-day cap, using a seeded random number generator so the same inputs always give the same result.

5. 5

   We apply the firm's rules to every run

   On every trade we check the drawdown floor and daily-loss limit, and mark a run passed once it reaches the profit target after the minimum number of trading days.

6. 6

   You get your pass probability and a breakdown

   The share of runs that passed is your pass probability, alongside why runs failed, the median days to pass, your headroom to the drawdown, and an equity fan chart.

The simulation is only as good as the numbers you give it. It builds your trade distribution from these inputs:

Every prop firm evaluation is a different obstacle course. The calculator applies each plan’s actual rules to every simulated run:

Each simulated run ends in one of four ways:

• Pass — the balance reaches the profit target on or after the minimum trading day, before the time cap.
• Fail: drawdown— a trade pushes the balance to or below the firm’s drawdown floor.
• Fail: daily loss— a single day’s loss breaches a hard daily-loss limit.
• Fail: time— the run reaches the evaluation’s day limit without hitting the target.

• Pass probability — The share of the 5,000 runs that reached the profit target without breaching a rule.
• Failure breakdown — How the failed runs split between hitting the drawdown, breaking the daily-loss limit, and running out of time.
• Median days to pass — The typical number of trading days a passing run took, so you can gauge a realistic timeline.
• Median headroom — How much cushion you had to your drawdown floor at the tightest moment of a passing run.
• Equity fan — A p10–p90 band showing where your balance is likely to travel day by day across the runs.

The calculator uses a seeded random number generator, which means identical inputs always produce the identical result. Run the same profile against the same firm twice and you get the same pass probability, so the number is reproducible and comparable across firms rather than drifting every time you refresh.

Will I pass a prop firm evaluation?

No tool can promise an answer, but you can estimate it. The calculator simulates your trading 5,000 times against a firm's exact rules and reports the share of runs that reach the profit target without breaching a drawdown or daily-loss limit. That share is your estimated pass probability.

How many simulations does the calculator run?

5,000 by default. Each one plays out a full evaluation day by day, up to a 120-day cap, sampling every trade from your own win rate and average win and loss.

Is the calculator free?

Yes. The simulation runs in your browser, needs no login, and does not store the trading stats you enter.

Does a high pass probability guarantee I will pass?

No. It is a statistical estimate based on the stats you enter and assumes your future trades resemble your past ones. Live trading brings tilt, news, and changing conditions the model does not capture.

What is the difference between trailing and static drawdown?

A static drawdown is a fixed dollar floor below your starting balance. A trailing drawdown follows your account's peak upward, either intraday (tracking every trade) or at end of day (locking in at each day's close), so it can tighten as you profit until it locks.

How long does it take to pass an evaluation?

The calculator reports the median number of trading days to pass among successful runs, so you can see a realistic timeline for your stats and the firm's minimum-trading-day rule.